Thanks for the update Dman. I love the video format for these updates. Dang, honestly, I’ve never seen anyone pick so many 100%+ wins in a short time span. Unbelievable. Your analysis/research must be top notch. VFC and BABA Leaps were some of my best gains from this last year. The only one that pulled back a little is CCI. I bought more as well and plan on waiting for interest rates to come down and letting this run to ~$150. I plan on taking advantage of this “tariff tantrum” by buying good companies when they pull back. Thank you very much for helping us in DPL. I know all of these updates take up a ton of your time. I want you to know that you are dramatically improving my financial situation with all of your training in DPL. Thanks again Dman! I am interested to know how you plan on taking full advantage of this pull on Monday morning.
AMD 4Q24 results triggered my inner portfolio manager in me to cut a position when the thesis has changed, but after meeting with the management team, I’m incrementally more positive and decided to continue to hold AMD although I’m taking it off the top buy list and lowering my expectations going forward in the near-term, but taking a longer term view. (Usually this is a privilege in my line of work, but I see this as an advantage of what we are doing here in OTM as long-term investors without needing to report fund performance every quarter)
Why did the thesis change? AMD guidance for 2025 essentially guides for a flat 1H25 relative to 2H24, which was the first red flag which means that we will have a transition period in the next 6+ months where margin dilution continues. This is well below expectations and a lag relative to peers. The second red flag is the lack of AI revenue guidance for 2025, which I wasn’t expecting and reduces the transparency in the numbers. My main thesis in AMD lies in AI revenues aka Instinct GPUs and based on these 2 points, it certainly does not inspire confidence in the near-term.
Management did give me enough breadcrumbs to hold the stock in the next 6 months because 1. They assured me that they will continue to grow the number of CSPs running Instinct GPUs on top of those they currently already have 2. Strong use cases from MSFT and META for Copilot and Llama 405B for inference 3. Pull in of MI350 by a quarter 4. Continue to expect AI revenue to ramp from $5 billion to tens of billions in the next few years.
With that and recalibrated expectations for the AI revenue ramp of AMD, I think holding AMD would require a longer term perspective and the 1-year profile may not be the strongest, but I am willing to hold over the next 6 months to see if there’s any progress on the 4 points above.
Good Stuff Dman... I am concerned about what the Tariffs will do to The market over they next few days to weeks. Are you? I think we could have another Covid Style drop in the next 1-3 weeks. I am Fully invested in longs. I Know, Stupid! Now I am debating on dumping my entire portfolio tomorrow, Monday! Please give me your thoughts. Thanks! Joe
Thanks for the update Dman. I love the video format for these updates. Dang, honestly, I’ve never seen anyone pick so many 100%+ wins in a short time span. Unbelievable. Your analysis/research must be top notch. VFC and BABA Leaps were some of my best gains from this last year. The only one that pulled back a little is CCI. I bought more as well and plan on waiting for interest rates to come down and letting this run to ~$150. I plan on taking advantage of this “tariff tantrum” by buying good companies when they pull back. Thank you very much for helping us in DPL. I know all of these updates take up a ton of your time. I want you to know that you are dramatically improving my financial situation with all of your training in DPL. Thanks again Dman! I am interested to know how you plan on taking full advantage of this pull on Monday morning.
Sharing:
Update on AMD after meeting management:
AMD 4Q24 results triggered my inner portfolio manager in me to cut a position when the thesis has changed, but after meeting with the management team, I’m incrementally more positive and decided to continue to hold AMD although I’m taking it off the top buy list and lowering my expectations going forward in the near-term, but taking a longer term view. (Usually this is a privilege in my line of work, but I see this as an advantage of what we are doing here in OTM as long-term investors without needing to report fund performance every quarter)
Why did the thesis change? AMD guidance for 2025 essentially guides for a flat 1H25 relative to 2H24, which was the first red flag which means that we will have a transition period in the next 6+ months where margin dilution continues. This is well below expectations and a lag relative to peers. The second red flag is the lack of AI revenue guidance for 2025, which I wasn’t expecting and reduces the transparency in the numbers. My main thesis in AMD lies in AI revenues aka Instinct GPUs and based on these 2 points, it certainly does not inspire confidence in the near-term.
Management did give me enough breadcrumbs to hold the stock in the next 6 months because 1. They assured me that they will continue to grow the number of CSPs running Instinct GPUs on top of those they currently already have 2. Strong use cases from MSFT and META for Copilot and Llama 405B for inference 3. Pull in of MI350 by a quarter 4. Continue to expect AI revenue to ramp from $5 billion to tens of billions in the next few years.
With that and recalibrated expectations for the AI revenue ramp of AMD, I think holding AMD would require a longer term perspective and the 1-year profile may not be the strongest, but I am willing to hold over the next 6 months to see if there’s any progress on the 4 points above.
Your take Dman?
Good Stuff Dman... I am concerned about what the Tariffs will do to The market over they next few days to weeks. Are you? I think we could have another Covid Style drop in the next 1-3 weeks. I am Fully invested in longs. I Know, Stupid! Now I am debating on dumping my entire portfolio tomorrow, Monday! Please give me your thoughts. Thanks! Joe